Geoffrey Donaldson
While the social blast furnace south of the border fuses “political violence” with “partisan violence” like a red-hot, slag-encrusted bloom, we, my friends, are reminded that our own country will continue to need economic, diplomatic and strategic skill. The “art of the possible” is more discernible now that we’re between elections just about everywhere across the country—except half a mandate later in Newfoundland (the incumbent Liberal government faces a scheduled election in October).
The sultry curtains of wildfire smoke have parted as the spotlight falls upon the stage of real political theatre we’ve all been waiting for. Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney remains popular coming off tours in Europe and Mexico to confer with allied leaders about US foreign policy under its mercurial presidunce, Donald Trump. As of mid-September the House of Commons has resumed sitting where the leaders of the other two official parties will scratch their heads and, after three months of recess, ask of Carney: How’s he do it? The main-event budget won’t be tabled until November so we’ll have to make do with Conservative Opposition leader’s HoC debut, his second in 21 years as MP—which is probably what everybody’s been waiting for anyway.
In our last episode, Pierre Poilievre was fighting for his political life after his party blew a 20+point lead over the 3-term incumbent, coming up 25 seats short of the victorious Liberals, and he losing his own Ottawa seat which he won seven times in a row until the Liberal candidate finally waxed him but good. Eschewing resignation of his leadership after such an embarrassing double-drubbing, he instead decided to contest a by-election in Alberta, filling out our last bit of summer political respite.
Battle River-Crowfoot being the safest CPC seat in the country, Poilievre’s certain win would have been a yawner but for his main opponent, Bonnie Critchley, retired Canadian Army veteran, self-described conservative, and a real Alberta gal who spelled off stretching barbwire around her farm to run in protest against the parachuted “stranger” from Ottawa. She entered the race with the same determination as someone who could wrestle a Brahman bull to the ground—of which she also looks quite capable.
Critchley was runner-up with 10% of the vote, of course, but bonus features included the risk that Poilievre might step in the cow-patty of secessionism in the Wexit heartland; even the premier has tied on a bib for a sniff but, given the contrasting political suicide such a misstep would have on a federal leader, Poilievre was granted a Get-Out-of-Albertario-Free card and 80% of the vote. The MP who vacated his seat for the by-election emphasized he would run in this riding next time, while Critchley warned it would be the last Battle River residents would see of their newer MP once he was ensconced back in Ottawa where he’s lived for the last 25 of his 46 years. Both prognoses are virtually assured since it’s doubtful Poilievre’s leadership would survive any more setbacks (HoC floor-crossings, defections, resignations, gaffs and gotchas, anti-Canada polemic or Poilievre praise from Trump, &c).
The CPC will convene to review his leadership on January 29th so much of his HoC performance until Solstice break will be more about Conservative party politics than contributing to good public policy. During this critical period, Alberta premier Danielle Smith recently made nice with Mark Carney, a very conspicuous contrast to her usual, years-long, hateful rhetoric aimed at any and all federal Liberals; we may assume it’s to help, or at least not hurt Poilievre as he aims to reassure his own party that he can lead it to victory whenever the next election is. Thus his Question Period opportunity begins.
And thus it’s puzzling to hear him whip past opening niceties and immediately resume the kind of rhyming sloganeering widely thought to have cost him his seat and the CPC an election they were forecast to win by a landslide. Short of dulling Occam’s razor completely, it’s hard to explain why he didn’t pivot away from his perennial acerbic style when that 20+point lead began to evaporate after PM Justin Trudeau, then the sole target of Poilievre’s ad hominem, announced he would resign, or while a number of subsequent opportunities presented—except that he is incapable of anything else. This might also explain why Battle River-Crowfoot was picked when dozens of other, very safe CPC seats exist elsewhere across the country. This is one of the few ridings where PP’s kind of vitriol wouldn’t be so-questioned, where he could simply get away with it, where he wouldn’t be expected to say anything but what he’s always said.
Another broken Liberal promise. Another Liberal bait and switch. This Prime Minister is just another Liberal.” And this is just another example of typical PP rhetoric, if puzzling in these new and strange circumstances. But to hear every single CPC MP include these slogans, verbatim, in their opening addresses was nothing short of galling. Reminding that he’s playing to his party, not to parliamentarians or Canadians, it appears he wants to show he’s in charge and caucus is good and whipped. If so, expect more eye-glazing command performances of the PP’s trained seals for the remaining dozens of QPs before the Solstice break. The HoC reconvenes just three days before his mandatory party review—perfect for any addendum to party members he might feel is salutary.
This being the situation, don’t expect a snap election in the immediate future—at least not one precipitated by the CPC. It’s sometimes hard to remember, given the trust voters seem to have in Carney’s leadership so far, that this parliament is in fact “hung.” But that presents a quandary for the Poilievre who wouldn’t want to be forced into supporting a bill tabled by the very party he has habitually vilified his entire career if, by chance, other parties look like they might topple the minority before he’s ready. The Bloc Québécois has that potential, but the window is closing with respect to the Spring election in Quebec (the BQ would prefer not to confuse federal and provincial elections with the Parti Québécois leading in the polls). So what of the NDP which also could topple the government if it wanted to?
Well, so what of the NDP? Leaderless until March and without official party status for the first time—short five seats—it is currently wrestling with potential schism between social-justice-warrior and workers’-party factions. Even though the prospect of a CPC win last April compelled many longtime NDP supporters to vote tactically for Liberal candidates, and that their first preference probably remains strong, there’s potential that Dippers could pick up five or more seats and return to official party status with all its privileges, but it would depend on whether Poilievre remains such a threat that Dippers, some of Canadas most stalwart partisans, would loan their votes to second preferences. It might be a consideration if PP loses his review. Other than that, and considering the internal work Dippers need to do, it seems unlikely.
What of the Liberals, then? With only three seats short of a majority and both Carney and the party well into favourable numbers, mightn’t they precipitate an early election to take advantage? We don’t yet know Carney’s political mind. He’s both a rookie parliamentarian (and it shows without much damage to his popularity) and politician —and this is real politics; we get to watch all parties—including the Greens with the tireless Elizabeth May still holding a single seat, way in the back—posture and manoeuvre around fluctuating circumstances and each other in a hung parliament with the sword of democracy dangling above their heads.
It almost overshadows secondary housing “politics” on our little Island—almost, but not quite.
Enjoy what for many is the best season of the year, my friends, and be well.